Drug-resistant superbugs expected to claim 39 million lives by 2050

Infections caused by drug-resistant superbugs are projected to kill nearly 40 million people globally over the next 25 years, according to a global analysis released on Monday. Researchers have urged immediate action to prevent this alarming outcome.

Superbugs—strains of bacteria or pathogens that have developed resistance to antibiotics, making them significantly harder to treat—are recognised as a growing threat to global health.

The analysis, described as the first to track the global impact of superbugs over time, predicts future trends and potential outcomes.

Between 1990 and 2021, over a million people died annually from superbugs, also known as antimicrobial resistance (AMR), according to the study published in The Lancet journal.

While deaths among children under five from superbugs dropped by more than 50% over the past three decades, thanks to improved infection prevention and control measures, the infections are now more challenging to treat in those who contract them.

Conversely, deaths among those over 70 have surged by over 80% during the same period, with older populations becoming increasingly vulnerable to infection.

The study revealed that deaths from infections caused by MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus), a type of staph bacteria resistant to many antibiotics, doubled to 130,000 in 2021 compared to 30 years earlier.

• ‘This threat is growing’ -

The researchers used modelling to estimate that, based on current trends, the number of direct deaths from AMR will rise by 67%, reaching nearly two million deaths annually by 2050. It is expected to play a role in a further 8.2 million deaths each year, marking a 75% increase.

Under this scenario, AMR will have directly caused 39 million deaths over the next quarter century and contributed to a total of 169 million deaths.

However, less catastrophic outcomes are possible. If global efforts focus on improving care for severe infections and increasing access to antimicrobial drugs, the modelling suggests that up to 92 million lives could be saved by 2050.

“These findings underscore that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades, and that this threat is growing,” said study co-author Mohsen Naghavi of the US-based Institute of Health Metrics in a statement.

The researchers examined 22 pathogens, 84 combinations of drugs and pathogens, and 11 infectious syndromes, including meningitis. The study utilised data from 520 million individual records across 204 countries and territories.

The report was released ahead of a high-level United Nations meeting on AMR, scheduled for 26th September.

Although antimicrobial resistance is a natural phenomenon, the overuse and misuse of antibiotics in humans, animals, and plants has exacerbated the issue.